November 1, 2016

Winning On The Melbourne Cup (Again)

Pete's horse (Almandin) wins the Melbourne Cup. (Photo courtesy News Corp Australia)

Those in the know will be aware that Australia's main day, that brings Australians together, is not:

- Australia Day

- nor ANZAC Day

- but Melbourne Cup Day (first Tuesday in November) a horse race watched on TV by most people
   in Australia and many in New Zealand,

So called "gambling luck" in horse racing is more a Skill in choosing horses, based on observing changes in the odds of a given horse winning. If the odds for Horse A become less favourable in the 3 days before a race - and on the day of the race - then Bookmakers have assessed that Horse A is more likely to win.

Basically the Bookmakers (nowdays large betting agencies) know more than me about Horse A's condition - but I can gain some of what Bookmakers know based on how Bookmakers change the published odds.

So today was my third year of choosing the Melbourne Cup winner and a place getter. For Melbourne Cup 2016 I bet on:

- the winner, Almandin (odds dropped quite sharply to 13 to 1), 

- third, Hartnell at (odds stayed the same at 5 or 5.50 to 1)

- and small amounts on 3 losers

Overall I doubled my money. 

Naturally betting on horses has relevance to statistical methods to detect hiding submarines. One thing to watch is changes in the rate of an enemy's signals traffic - a high rate may indicate a crisis involving the enemy's submarine.

"Betting" or Probabilities also has relevance to options and actions for a submarine's weapon use. An enemy SSK may prefer to use its torpedoes or ASCMs before it surfaces - if it is almost running out of oxygen - see Game Theory.


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