June 16, 2016

An Abbott Defence Ministry May Offer Japan Hope

If (current) Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull wins the July 2, 2016 Election, with a likely reduced majority, post election ministerial rearrangements are highly likely. A reduced majority would weaken Turnbull while strengthening the conservative wing of the Liberal Party, with conservatives  still supporting deposed Prime Minister Tony Abbott (above). 

Despite Abbott's public denials Abbott still intends to return to power. Perhaps first Abbott might be appointed Defence Minister and then he may attempt to unseat (current) Prime Minister, Turnbull, later this year. 

The following may be of concern to DCNS but may offer hope for Japan:

Australia's SkyNews reports, June 16, 2016:

"...Mr Turnbull is said to be facing pressure from within Liberal ranks to give his predecessor a promotion.

Some have suggested Mr Abbott be given the defence ministry.

Cabinet minister Peter Dutton conceded Mr Abbott had the backing of some within the party for a ministerial job....”


What could Abbott in charge of Defence (including the submarine contracts) mean for the not yet legally finalized DCNS submarine decision? 



ONeil Padilla said...

Hi Pete,

If any this ever came to pass Tony may have the balls to back up what Jennings said and actively discuss a nuclear powered boat over a diesel Electric one. (Maybe)

I can't stand Abbott but I'm trying to see a silver-lining here and the only I'm coming up with is he's predictable.

There's no way the Japanese option is coming back into contention because it will discredit the whole CEP process that Abbott put in place.

That's my 2 cents worth.

Peter Coates said...

Hi ONeil Padilla

The rules of the Liberal Party in Australia's Coalition Government still allow Liberal Senators and MPs to remove a current Prime Minister and select a replacement, mid-term. So Australia's current political system remains unstable and as unprdictable as ever.

This may make Abbott's position and actions unpredictable.

On submarines. It would be unfortunate for Australia if it bought all 12 Shortfins - as (like all SSKs) they happen to be regionally inferior to SSNs. Better that we buy:

- 6 Shortfins

- then in the early 2030s put in an order for 4 Barracudas or Virginia SSNs (actually both SSN types have a 2 crew manning system)

It may be too late for Japan. TKMS was rated higher by the CEP assessors.



Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

The CEP was over. We have better discuss on the future relation between Japan and Australia rather than the story of ”if“. What I expect Australia is the diplomatic maturity and elegance. Current CEP style of Australia is a bit wild, and needlessly hurts Japan and Germany.

The relation between Japan and Australia is damaged. I think it takes at least few years to repair the damaged bilateral relation and that Mr. Turnbull and Madam Payne cannot repair it.


Peter Coates said...

Hi S

Japan and Australia indeed need to be positive and think of the future.