March 4, 2016

Australian "Delay" in Receiving the Future Subs

Note that the new submarines will only begin to be built in about 12 years time - for entry into service not in the late 2020s but the early 2030s. 

There is currently a political confrontation between former Prime Minister Abbott and current Prime Minister Turnbull over what Abbott perceives as a new submarine "delay". 

Only beginning the build in 2027 may cause much uncertainty for the winning contender. The delay may effect TKMS and DCNS less as there is a full export or foreign build order book for TKMS (for Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Singapore, Israel and South Korea) and almost full for DCNS (India and Brazil).

For Japan it is a long wait. The delay may benefit Australia with the opportunity for Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs), new diesels and the new snorkel system being operationally tested in Japanese Soryu Mark 2s and new, post Soryu class, over a longer period. If Japan is chosen see the Australian build details in red in the SORYU TABLE below. 

If TKMS or DCNS are chosen Australia may benefit from those companies spending a longer period developing and testing new air independent propulsion (AIP) technologies and also LIBs.

Without the CEP contender even being announced the "delay" controversy should serve as a warning to contenders about how political the new submarine issue is in Australia. Australian government decisions may continue to be surprising, personality and election driven. Different Prime Ministers and Coalition versus Labor governments may have conflicting ideas as to when and where the submarines should be assembled.

SORYU TABLE (with earlier Oyashios, as at March 22, 2016)
SS
No.
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi-ssioned
Built
By
5SS
8105
Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B
FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios
10 subs
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 Feb 1994
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS Soryu
Mark 1
8116
Sōryū
SS-501
¥60B FY2004
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
No
21SS
No 21SS built
22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
Mar 2013
Nov 2015
Mar 2017
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
Oct 2013
Nov 2016
Mar 2018
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
LABs + AIP
?
?
Mar 2019
KHI
27SS
Soryu
Mark 2
8126
SS-511
¥64.3B FY2015
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2020
MHI
28SS
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2021
KHI
29SS
?
?
 1st of New
Japanese  Class
LIBs only
?
?
2023?
MHI?
Aus1
?
?
1st of new Aus class (if Japan chosen)
LIBs only
2028?
2030?
2033?
in Aus or Jpn?
Aus2 to 12?
?
?
between 5 and 11 additional Aus subs
LIBs only
from 2029?
from 2031?
from 2034?
in Aus or Jpn?
Table courtesy of information provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, 

AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = lithium-ion batteries.  



Pete

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Everything consists of yin and yang. Such a haphazard planning has a merit. Leak of secret technology will delay a decade.

Regards
S

Peter Coates said...

Hi S

Yes there are so many ways for Russia and China to gather submarine design information through:

- systematic study of magazines and photos,

- buying diesels and AIP from European countries, and

- secret gathering by electronic-cyber and human (even "student") means.

Regards

Pete