January 8, 2016

NK Nuclear Test Results and Implications - Don't Hold Your Breath.

Obama at his strongest. Many people are waiting for US leadership and resolve against North Korea's long march to a Hydrogen Bomb. Like Chamberlain Obama is looking a bit lame. Might take a "madman" like Trump to make Kim III sit up and take notice. 

Evolving nuclear weapons programs need many tests.

It is notable that authorities in 2013 said very little about North Korea's purposes for the preceding 2013 test.

The 2013 and this latest test may have always been for a primary for an H-bomb. 

Kim III and the Kim Dynasty in the longer term seem to have grandiose but not immediately realizable weapons goals. Then they eventually achieve those goals.

Further seismic data, US chemical sniffing jets and other intel sources will likely reveal much more in the next 48 hours but results may be only issued to small groups within the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5), South Korea and Japan.

As with the 2013 test the US may not want to provide analysis that points to a North Korean H-Bomb program progressing. This would cause loss of face for the US Obama administration, intel and military communities.

Western militaries and politicians seem powerless to slow North Korea’s nuclear program – shades of appeasement to counter German acts and rearmament in the 1930s? 

"Madman" Ronald Reagan did wonders facing down the Soviet military empire in the 1980s. Does the US need a "madman" like Trump to facedown Kim's nuclear nation-building?



Anonymous said...

It's mad to ignore the problem posed by an nuclear North Korea. We should give Kim a simple choice: renounce nukes or die. One does not allow a toddler to handle a loaded gun.

Peter Coates said...

Hi Anonymous

Unfortunately Obama seems to be ignoring North Korea (and many other terrorist acts) while pursuing the lost cause of gun control in the US as a distraction.

Oh well. We'll need to wait for the Inauguration on January 20 2017 (yes 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration ) for some leadership from the US.

US leadership includes pressuring China (NK's only master) to start to make NK behave.

Most likely Hilary Clinton would be a do-nothing President (riding on First Woman after First Negro). Trump or some other Republican would be a better deal.



Anonymous said...

Truth is options are very limited, if non existent outside of economic sanctions with North Korea given they already have 20 nuclear devices according to a former director of Los Alamos lab. Sanctions so far do not work because China is not gong along. Any conflict on the Korean peninsula will lead to massive civilian casualties, likely in the millions. Some 26M South Koreans live in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. They are all within range of the several thousands North Korean heavy artillery guns, and there are thousands of SRBM to boost. The last conflict there when it spreads north of the 38th parallel brought in the PLA. I doubt if China will not intervene again.
President Obama was awarded very early on this Nobel Peace prize, so he is protecting that legacy, and that hurts his own credibility. I disagree with you on Mrs. Clinton. She is known to be rather hawkish. The problem for the Republicans is neither Trump, Cruz or Rubio can win in a general election, and the party's platform does not help by alienating a lot of voters.

Peter Coates said...

Hi Anonymous [Jan 9, 10:49AM]

Yes the particulars of the North Korea nuclear terror challenge defy any human solution. But the 5 Permanent Members of the UN Security Council (legal nuclear weapon powers) need to earn their privileged positions and find ways to persuade North Korea.

The world survived the Cold War in the early 90s in a way that no higly paid intelligence experts (Los Alamos or Langley) predicted.

Maybe its up to a whole Conference of Top Secret cleared psychologists to reach consensus on whether this latest Kim will actually press the button in reponse to Great Power Pressure?

Does Kim III think he is a God Given Pharoah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egyptian_religion who has the right to extinguish N and S Korea and a chunk of Japan?