December 19, 2015

Future Sub decision to be made in "first half of" 2016

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Australian counterpart, Malcolm Turnbull, hold bilateral summit talks Friday at the State Guest House in Tokyo. (Photo and description courtesy AFP-JIJI via Japan Times)
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Following Prime Minister Turnbull's short trip to Tokyo to meet Prime Minister Abe, December 18, 2015, Reiji Yoshida for The Japan Times, same day, in part reported:

..."According to Japanese officials, during the closed part of the meeting, Abe explained Japan’s proposal for joint production of a modified version of Japan’s latest Soryu-class submarine, which experts say is one of the world’s best and quietest nonnuclear submarines.

Turnbull thanked Japan for its proposal but only said Australia will make a decision in the first half of the next year, the Japanese officials said.

France and Germany have proposed their own plans to export submarines to Australia. Canberra is set to choose one model through a competitive evaluation process.

In the joint statement, the two leaders also expressed “strong support for the United States rebalance” policy to maintain it military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The U.S. is believed to be supporting Japan’s bid to export submarines to Australia, hoping it will further strengthen trilateral military cooperations in the region." Ends - see WHOLE ARTICLE.

Please connect with Submarine Matters article of December 17, 2015 on the Turnbull visit.

Pete

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Japanese government is extremely serious to win a submarine bid according to latest report [1]. Direct negative campaign by PM Merkel is not a wise man’s behavior.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/03/national/australia-final-stage-vetting-submarine-bids/#.VokHs63UjIV(The Japan Times, JAN3, 2016 “Australia in final stage of vetting submarine bids”)
*snips*
The Japanese government has asked Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., the joint makers of the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Soryu-class submarine, not to place priority on profitability in the bidding war. As a result, they could possibly have an edge over the German and French companies, informed sources said.
*snips*
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has reportedly warned the Australian side that Canberra’s relations with China could deteriorate if it awards the submarine contract to Japan, whose ties with an increasingly assertive China have recently been strained.
*snips*

Regards
S

Peter Coates said...

Hi S

Thanks for http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/03/national/australia-final-stage-vetting-submarine-bids/#.VokHs63UjIV

Low profits for upfront price and sustainment/spare parts would be ideal.

Merkel should not be negative - otherwise people could criticize the German AIPs inability to handle the US combat system added to other electrical demands.

Here is a long detailed article http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/japan-plays-for-the-submarine-prize/news-story/dc65e959e418395e91795412fb44bc6f from Japanese Ambassador to Australia, Sumio Kusaka, who "scoffs at suggestions that language and cultural differences could make it difficult for Japan to build Australia’s" new submarines.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...


Hi Pete
Last December, Budget of 28SS was announced by Ministry of Defense . The approved budget is 63.6billion yen excluding initial year cost. MOD requested 71.5 billion yen. Judging from budget, MOD may expect higher performance of 28SS than that of 27SS, but Ministry of Finance seemed to refuse the expectation of MOD.
Regards
S

Anonymous said...

Continued
Requested budget [1] is71,527,717(FY2016-2020) million yen, detailed request is as follows 1) 118,833(FY2016); 2) 71,408,884 (FY2017-2020), 3) 6,830,844 (FY2017),4) 24,290,039 (FY2018), 5) 23,682,417 (FY2019), 6) 16,605,584 (FY2020).
Approved budget is 63.6billion yen [2], cost of first year (FY2016) is exclude

Requested budget [3] is 65,964,619 (FY2015-FY2019) million yen, detailed request is as follows, 1) 169,977 (FY2015); 2) 65,794,642 (FY2016-2019); 3) 6,610,172(FY2016); 4) 22,743,416(FY2017); 5) 20,677,029 (FY2018); 6) 15,764,025(FY2019).
Approved budget is 64.3billion yen [4], cost of first year (FY2015) is excluded.
[1]http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/gaisan/h28/gaisanyoukyu.pdf, “Detailed FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 672, Request No (Left column) 47
[2]http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/271016.pdf, “Defense Programs and Budget of Japan - Overview of FY2016 Budget Request”, Page 8/56
[3]http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/gaisan/h27/gaisanyoukyu.pdf, “Detailed FY2015 Budget Request”, Page 626, Request No (Left column) 40
[4]http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/270414.pdf, “Defense Programs and Budget of Japan - Overview of FY2016 Budget Request”, Page8/66

Peter Coates said...

Hi S [Jan 9, 2:34 PM and Jan 9, 2:35 PM]

Thankyou for those future Soryu budget estimates.

71.5 Billion Yen works out at about US$610 million at today's exchange rate
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=yen%20to%20usd%20exchange%20rate .

It is useful that Japan is publishing Budget Estimates (for its Australia relevant SSKs) because TKMS and DCNS are not.

Of course the export sale price for Australia for a future larger Super Soryu will be much higher than US$610 million. The integration process for the US designed Combat System + Weapons must also be included and may be mainly influenced by the US.

Using the Soryu Table at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/japan-willing-to-build-in-aus-says.html
- I note that 28SS may be the 12th Soryu built and be LIBs only with no AIP.
- 28SS may be Laid Down at KHI Kobe 2017, Launched 2019 and Commissioned into the Japanese Navy (JMSDF) by 2021.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

The FY2012 Governmental Project Review Sheet of MOD reported that the building cost of 19SS (FY2007 Soryu with 480 LABs arrays + 4 Stirling AIPs) was 53 billion yen and that the cost of LABs by GS Yuasa was 1.5 b-yen (3 m-yen/array). According to MOD, life time of LIBs is twice longer than LABs and its life cycle cost is nearly same as LABs. This means that the cost of LIBs is 3 b-yen (6 m-yen/array).

In the cases of 27SS and 28SS (Soryus with LIBs), the building cost is 64 b-yen, which is nearly 12 b-yen higher than that of 26SS with LABs and AIP, far exceeding the increased cost by LIBs (1.5b-yen). I think big modification except LIBs will be conducted for 27SS and 28SS, making them proto types of post-Soryu, 29SS.

Regards
S

Anonymous said...

I corrected spellings.

Hi Pete

Oyashio is precedent of Soryu, and has nearly same structure as Soryu. Oyashio does not equip AIP, shorter hull and lacks full rubber coatings of outer hull. These difference corresponds to difference in cost between Oyashio and Soryu.

Cost of first batch submarine is 52.2 and 59.8 b-yen for 5SS (FY1993Oyashio) and 16SS (FY2004 Soryu), respectively [1]. From these data, we can judge that cost of AIP is considerably expensive. Increased cost of 27SS and 28SS by equipment of LIBs may trade off with cost by elimination of AIP. Higher cost of cost of 27SS and 28SS (64 b-yen) means another modification, 27SS and 28SS will equip new snorkel generation system at least, I think.

[1] “On the current status of foundation of ship building and technology” by MOD, FY2011 March.

Regards
S

Peter Coates said...

Thankyou S

For your comments in this thread. I'll turn your comments into a post tomorrow and return to submarine issues generally.

Kind Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

I re-correct comment (January 10, 2016 at 11:10 AM): before correction (Oyashio does not equip AIP, shorter hull), after correction (Oyashio does not equip AIP, has shorter hull), sorry.

I show additional explanation of comment (January 9, 2016 at 2:34 PM) on 28SS and 27SS.

Comparison of cost of 28SS (71.5 billion yen for request budget and 63.6 for approved budget) with that of 27SS (66,0 and 64,3) suggests the submarines are nearly same. I consider meaning of deference of requested and approve budgets of 28SS based on idea budget assessment of Ministry of Finance. MOF usually cuts least available equipment and recommends to use existing equipment. MOD requested new torpedo G-RX6, but MOF ordered to use current Type 89 torpedo, of course, this is my imagination.

By the way, MOF usually cuts some percent of approved budget at the end of year and cut budget becomes the real one. So, real building cost of 28SS and 27SS is lower than approved budget and it may be around 60 billion yen, I think.

Regards
S

Anonymous said...


Hi Pete
The calculate price of Soryu is according to equation (1) based on GCIP (GC = selling, general and administrative expenses, I = interest rate, P = profit ratio) cost accounting. Japanese Government requests MHI and KHI to make nil profit in equations (1). MHI and KHI may go into red according to the circumstances.

Calculate price = overall cost + interest + profit + packaging & transport cost --- (1)
Overall cost = manufacturing cost + manufacturing cost * GC --- (2)
Manufacturing cost = direct material cost + processing cost +direct cost --- (3)
Interest = overall cost * I --- (4)
Profit = overall cost * P --- (5)
First year costs (design cost, jig & tool cost, testing cost, technical collaboration fee) belong to direct cost in equation (2)

In the case of 19SS, execution expenses (53 billion yen) consist of government supply (23 billion yen) and building cost (30 billion yen). About fifty percent of building cost is parts cost or material cost.

Execution expenses tend to decrease every year, which are 60, 58.7, 56.2 and 53 billion yen for 16SS, 17SS, 18SS and 19SS, respectively.

Regards
S

Peter Coates said...

Thanks S

I'll put your budget info in an article tomorrow.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete 

I rewrite my comment (January 10, 2016 at 11:10 AM).
Oyashio is precedent of Soryu, and has nearly same structure as Soryu. Oyashio does not equip AIP with shorter hull and lacks full rubber coatings of outer hull. These differences correspond to difference in cost between Oyashio and Soryu.

Cost of first batch submarine is 52.2 and 59.8 billion yen for 5SS (FY1993Oyashio) and 16SS (FY2004 Soryu), respectively [1]. From these data, we can judge that cost of AIP is considerably expensive. In fact, cost of AIP generators for 19SS (FY2009 Soryu) is 4 billion yen. Increased cost (+1.5 billion yen) of 27SS and 28SS by equipment of LIBs easily trades off cost reduction (-4 billion yen) by elimination of AIP generators. Higher cost of 27SS and 28SS (64 billion yen) than that of 26SS (52 billion yen) suggests another big modification including new snorkel generation system. 27SS and 28SS may belong to family of next submarines of Japan, I think.

If Australia select Japanese submarine, the submarine would be very reliable, because there are three proto types, i.e., 27SS, 28SS and 29SS.

[1] “On the current status of foundation of ship building and technology” by MOD, FY2011 March.

Regards
S