February 29, 2012

East Timor - A Potted History

Looking out across Dili and its Harbour to Atauro Island
See a separate post on this blog concerning Fretilin and Falantil at http://gentleseas.blogspot.hk/2009/06/east-timor-history-fretilins-rebel.html .
An Australian family stand on the Fatunaba Hills of East Timor, near Dare. There is a small Australian War Memorial there - built for the soldiers of Sparrow Force who died fighting the Japanese in World War Two. They feel sad for their dead countrymen, even though they don’t know any of their names.

Sparrow Force serves as an example of the subjectivity of history. The effects of Sparrow Force’s activities were more complex than most Australians and East Timorese realise and not all positive. Sparrow Force was sometimes unpopular with many East Timorese - yet after the war and in general Sparrow Force was probably admired by East Timorese. A lasting feeling of partnership, even though based on generalisations, is still valid, but still complex.

History is built on generalisations and feelings. It is built on constant rewriting due to such elements as: new evidence appearing, changing religious outlooks, to sell books and due to bilateral politics. Therefore there is never One History that is set in stone.

Few East Timorese people are alive today who lived during World War Two. Food shortages, disease and fighting were worse then. Furthemore few East Timorese could write at the time of Would War Two and literacy is still low. This means that most of East Timor’s history has been written by others - such as the Portugese, Dutch, English, Australians, Americans and Indonesians.

With internet sources at hand (mainly
Wikipedia) as well as An Atlas of Australian Military History written by my father, I’m writing a very brief history of East Timor. I write as I see it, as a geographical novice - I’ve never been to East Timor, but I have had many experiences in the wider region that have shaped my views of history, strategy and politics.

Early (Pre-colonial) History - Waves of Migration.
Standing on the Fatunaba Hills you can look out over Dili across the sea to Atauro Island. You might feel elated - you can see so far.

If you have brought a map that includes Timor and the nearby islands of the Lesser Sundas, Western Dayas and the Letis it will become apparent that the islands could have served as stepping stones through history for people moving towards Timor. Some may have been moving all their lives, to find their own land, to escape enemies or just to find enough food.
The island of Timor was populated as part of the human migrations that have shaped Australasia more generally. It is believed that survivors from three waves of migration still live in the country.
- The first is described by anthropologists as people of the Vedo-Australoid type, who arrived from the north and west approximately 40,000 to 20,000 years BC. Others of this type include the Wanniyala-Aetto (Veddas) of Sri Lanka. Around 3000 BC,
- A second migration brought Melanesians. The earlier Vedo-Australoid peoples withdrew at this time to the mountainous interior.
- finally, proto-Malays arrived from south China and north Indochina. Hakka traders are among those descended from this final group.“

Local “Timorese origin” history tells of ancestors that sailed around the eastern end of Timor arriving on land in the south [and of] Timorese ancestors journeying from the Malay Peninsula or the Minangkabau Highlands of Sumatra.”

The Timorese were not seafarers, yet canoes or rafts may have been needed to travel between islands unless drops in the sea level during Ice Ages allowed Timor’s eventual inhabitants to walk there - across land bridges rather they were land focussed peoples who did not make contact with other islands and peoples by sea.
Trading and Colonial History of East Timor

Prehistory now gives way to the written records generated by the European explorers and colonisers.

1300s on
Timor was incorporated into the Arab, Chinese and Indian trading networks of the 1300s as an exporter of aromatic sandalwood, slaves and beeswax. From traders Timorese imported metal goods, silks, and rice.

Also in the 1300s, the cultural and economic rise of Europe, known as the Renaissance, started in what are now Italy, Spain and Portugal. The three countries gradually built up their naval and miltary power over 250 years permitting them to eventually sail around the world and conquer territories, like Timor, hitherto unknown in Europe.

1400s - time of the Wehali of Timor

The most recent major kingdoms in Timor are the best documented. By the 1400s in Timor the Wehali tribe were the most powerful. Wehali (a people, kingdom and vague area) is centred on the village of Laran, which sits in a fertile plain on the southern coast of Central Timor, now in Indonesia. The area is well suited to varied agriculture. According to oral tradition Wehali was the first land that appeared from the waters which once covered the earth, marking the centre of the world as Timorese saw it. Other traditions mention a migration from Chinese White Malacca in ancient times.

Wehali belongs to the Tetun-speaking area, which is also known as Belu. The southern Tetun have a matrilineal system. At the apex of the political system stood a "great lord" (Nai Bot) who held the title of Maromak Oan ("son of God"). His task was ritually passive, in a symbolic sense "female" and he kept an executive "male" regent or assistant by his side, the (Wehali) Liurai or King ("surpassing the land"). Wehali is often mentioned with its sister tribal area Wewiku. Others Liurais and lower rank chiefs in Timor regularly paid the Wehali Liurai tribute often some valuable commodity or at least a pledge of loyalty.

Outside Belu were two further Liurais who were independent of Wehali but kept certain ties with it, namely Sonbai in West Timor and Likusaen (Liquica) in East Timor.

The Wehali were powerful by local stadards yet their power over other tribes was not strong enough. Timor’s systems of power were very decentralised making it an easy target for cultural and military invasions by foreigners.

Timor and European Trade System

Today oil, gas and coal are commodities that dominate sea trade but 500 years ago for much of Asia it was spices. Europeans considered spices were as valuable as gold because they usually had to be carried to Europe across the Indian Ocean, overland through South Asia and the Middle East then across the Mediterranean to Venice. Venice had become powerful by setting itself up as the only European spice trading port allowing it to onsell spices to the rest of Europe at great profit.

Rising Spain and Portugal were unhappy with the Venetian spice monopoly and overland markups so they sought to use their newly developed long range naval power to find spice areas in the East Indies, conquer them, then ship the spices home directly by sea.

The spices including nutmeg, cloves and mace were used as active preservatives for food or to disguise the taste of poorly preserved foods.The Spanish and Portugese launched expeditions that found their way to Timor - exploration not for science but for profit.

The first Europeans to arrive in the East Indies region were Portuguese in 1515 though they may not have visited Timor.

1500s - European Contact Begins

Portuguese traders and priests reached the coast of Timor, near the coast of Oecussi (now an East Timorese enclave in West Timor) around 1515. Portugese-Spanish Captain Ferdinand Magellan was killed on Cebu Island in the Philippines in 1521. His expedition, however, continued on into the East Indies and in 1522 landed in Timor. Early European explorers report that the island had a number of small chiefdoms with Wehali (as was recounted before) being the most powerful.

Arab, Indian and Chinese traders were already trading with indigenous Timorese including taking slaves. This implies that force or coersion existed. Life was often harsh. The Portugese were equally likely to use violence and take slaves because there was great competition to seize coastal trading posts before other European nations (Spain, then the Dutch, then English) became aware of what was valuable. The Portugese also brought energetic and sincere Catholic missionaries who attempted to “save souls”, as well as to make Timorese less vulnerable to Islam or other national faiths.

For Timorese to resist the armed and religious incursions of the Spanish and Portugese would have required a tighter feudal system, modern weapons and support from outside powers (European or Muslim). None of these defences were available. For people unused to “modern” fighting the muskets and small cannon available to the Spanish and Portugese would have been terrifying.

mid 1500s until the 1800s

Coastal areas of Timor underwent relatively rapid change from the mid 1500s until the 1800s. Dominican friars established a permanent presence on the island in 1556. In the 1600s the animist Wehali king had friendly relations with the Muslim kingdom of Makassar, The Wehali king position was reduced by invasions by the Portuguese in 1642 and 1665 that devestated much of Timor. By 1665 the Wehali Kingdom appears to have been controlled by the Portuguese.

In 1702 the territory officially became a Portuguese colony, known as Portuguese Timor, when Lisbon sent its first governor, António Coelho Guerreiro, with Lifau as its capital. Lifau is in East Timor’s Oecussi-Ambeno enclave oddly situated in West Timor. Portuguese administrators and farmers ruled coastal regions in cooperation with local leaders, but had very little influence in the mountainous interior. Dominican friars, the occasional Dutch raid, and the Timorese themselves competed with Portuguese merchants. The control of colonial administrators was largely restricted to the Dili area, and they had to rely on traditional tribal chieftains for control and influence.

The Portuguese grip over western Timor receded greatly after 1749, and the Dutch East India Company, which had hitherto been confined to Kupang in western Timor, expanded its sphere of power over large parts of the island.

During the 1750s the Wehali approached the Dutch East India Company and in 1756 the Wehali Liurai (King) Jacinto Correia signed a contract with the Dutch diplomat Johannes Andreas Paravicini. According to this contract the Wehali King was the overlord over a large number of Timorese kingdoms. The Dutch hoped that the contract would automatically include most of East Timor in their sphere of power, but the ritual rather than executive authority of Wehali was insufficient for this.
Over the next century the Wehali attempted to make either the Dutch or Portuguese their protectors but these two colonial powers did not want a united Timorese people. The powers continued to divide Timorese and rule for trade.

Portugese Timor's capital was moved to Dili in 1767, due to attacks from the Dutch, had been colonising the rest of the island and the surrounding archipelago that is now Indonesia. The Portugese then established several more trading posts within Eastern Timor along the coast from Dili.

The Portuguese introduced maize as a food crop and coffee, sugar cane, cocoa, rubber and cotton as export crops. Timorese systems of tax and labour control were preserved, through which taxes were paid through their labour and a portion of the coffee and sandalwood crop. The Portuguese introduced mercenaries into Timor communities and Timor chiefs hired Portuguese soldiers for wars against neighbouring tribes. With the use of the Portuguese musket, Timorese men became deer hunters and suppliers of deer horn and hide for export.

1800s to mid 1900s - Time of neglect

For the Portuguese, East Timor remained little more than a neglected collection of trading posts until the late 1800s. The border between Portuguese Timor and the Dutch East Indies was formally decided in 1859 with the Treaty of Lisbon.

Investment in infrastructure, health, and education was minimal. East Timor remained largely underdeveloped with an economy based on barter. The Portugese made large profits from exports of sandalwood but eventually overexploited this resource. As sandalwood became almost extinct the Portuguese in 1815 introduced coffee plantations, along with sugar cane and cotton. In places where Portuguese rule was asserted, it tended to be brutal and exploitive.

In 1900, a series of Timorese rebellions against the Portuguese occupation began, including the revolt of in Manufahi led by Dom Boaventura. After 12 years of fighting the Portuguese, Boaventura’s forces were finally crushed by troops in 1912.
Up until 1900s the activities of Europeans did not radically change the lives of the majority of East Timorese who lived in the mountains [including the Aileu District?]. They still led a subsistence, village lifestyle with belief in many gods and spirits.
On the coast especially in the Dili area trade, Christianity and racial intermixing gradually changed the lives of East Timorese much more than inland.

In 1913, the Portuguese and Dutch concluded another agreement splitting the island between them.

The definitive border was drawn up and agreed at the Hague (in the Netherlands) in 1916, and it remains the international boundary between the modern states of East Timor and Indonesia.
Prior to World War II, the capital, Dili, had no electricity or town water supply and there were few roads.
East Timor in World War Two
Japan started World War II in the Pacific with its attacks not only on Pearl Harbour, but simultaneously on US bases in the Philippines and on British Malaya. From early December 1941 the Australian Government optimistically sent tiny forces of mainly light infantry to the the small islands to Australia's north including Rabaul, Ambon and Timor. These were supposed to act as a buffer or holding forces to hinder or even stop the Japanese forces.
The occupation of Timor by some Japanese forces was likely sooner later but the Australian-Dutch landing meant that the Japanese invaded the island with larger forces and subjected it to a more severe occupation than otherwise.
Overall the Australian defensive campaigns in Rabaul, Ambon and Timor were failures. Contrary to popular opinion the Australian/East Timorese/Dutch effort did not "save Australia" although Australians were (and are) very appreciative of East Timorese help during the war. It was actually huge US military forces that did most to save Australia at the Battle of the Coral Sea and at Guadalcanal by preventing Japan from establishing staging posts from which to blockade, bomb or invade Australia. These latter two battles occurred in 1942 and lead to around 8,000 Americans dying, a long way from home.
The total Dutch and Australian ("Sparrow") forces sent to defend Timor and act as a forward defence of Australia in December 1941 always numbered less than 2,000 men. In just four days (20 to 23 Feb 1942) the Japanese destroyed the main Australian and Dutch forces in Dutch (West) Timor. Australian-Dutch forces were too small, supported by too few aircraft, ships (no tanks) and were too inexperienced (compared to the Japanese). Everything the Allies lacked the Japanese possessed including paratroops.

In East Timor the Japanese stepped ashore in Dili unapposed by the neutral Portugese administration (in February 1942). After the Dutch and Australians surrendered in West Timor on 23 February 1942 the fight against the Japanese relied on “Sparrow Force” of around 150 to 300 Australians and on East Timorese. Most of the action occurred to the south of Dili including the Aileu District.

The Portugese, while officially neutral, often chose to help the Australians. Timorese (termed “native carriers”) assisted by transporting supplies and providing the Australian with a large-scale intelligence screen (including information on Japnese movements and the best places to ambush them).

For much of its early existence Sparrow force successfully fought the Japanese even though up to 90% of Sparrow Force had malaria.

From July 1942 the Japanese sharply increased the forces from 1,500 to 12,000 fighting Sparrow Force and remaining Dutch. This placed pressure on Sparrow Force.
Along with increased troop numbers the Japanese used some West Timorese to persuade a significant number of East Timorese to stop helping the Australians. The Japanese had some success (using "Pan-Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere propaganda) in lumping the Australians in with the "white" Dutch and Portugese colonial overlords. Excellent intelligence from East Timorese about Japanese movements began to dry up.

Growing Timorese impatience or even hostility to Sparrow Forces activities was also due to starvation. Most Timorese reliant on bare subsistence farming, were starving due to the disruption of continual fighting and also the enforced need to feed the Australian and Japanese troops fighting around their villages.

Finally the American-Australian military leadership in Australia decided that Japanese pressure was too great for the outnumbered Sparrow Force to remain. Fighting the Japanese in Timor was no longer "defending Timor" it was just about tying up larger Japanese forces. However the cost in naval resupply resources and infantry was too high.

By February 1943 the last Australians were withdrawn from Timor to Fremantle. The Timorese were left to the Japanese.
Events in Timor did little to influence the broad course of the war yet the Australians with much East Timorese help tied down or eliminated many Japanese troops that Japan sorely needed elsewhere. For example the Australian 2/2nd Independent Company (of Sparrow Force) suffered 40 killed or seriously wounded while inflicting more than 1,500 casualties on the Japanese. The Japanese remained in East Timor until September 1945.
By the end of the war, East Timor was destroyed. Some 60,000 East Timorese lost their lives as a result of the Japanese occupation and the efforts of the Timorese to resist the invaders and help the Australian troops. The economy was shattered. Most of the plantations of coffee, cocoa and rubber had been abandoned.
The Timorese and the Portuguese tried to help the country recover. But development was slow. The average annual growth rate between 1953 and 1962 was just 2%. On 14 December 1960, the United Nations declared East Timor a non-self governing territory under Portuguese administration. It was only then that Portugal tried seriously and systematically to develop East Timor through three successive five-year plans.
Portugal governed East Timor with a combination of direct and indirect rule, managing the population as a whole through the traditional power structures rather than by using colonial civil servants. This left traditional East Timorese society almost untouched.
East Timorese Civil War
In 1974, the transition to democracy in Portugal had an impact on all its colonies and for the first time, the East Timorese were given freedom to form their own political parties. In 1974, following a series of changing political alliances, the Timorese Democratic Union (UDT) and the Revolutionary Front for the Independence of East Timor (Frente Revolucionara do Timor Leste Independente (Fretilin)) formed a coalition in preparation for independence.
The details of the UDT-Fretilin alliance cross personal and political issues - like most things in East Timorese elites matters. In May 1974, Jose Ramos-Horta, who, like Xanana Gusmao, was then a member of Fretilin, had family ties with the Carrascalao's [see last para first page here] and forged a fragile union of UDT and Fretilin under the umbrella, ASDT which collapsed as the UDT realised that Fretilin,would outstrip them due to their large Maubere (ethnic and political) base.

The UDT staged the August 11, 1975 coup attempt, with the tacit approval of the remaining Portuguese and police who ordered the military confined to barracks whilst the UDT elements killed what Fretilin executives who remained in Dili. Meanwhile the bulk of Fretilin were in the mountains, introducing their policies to the East Timorese rural areas.

Rogerio Lobato (who has had a long and active career), brother of Nicolau, led the troops out of the barracks opposing the coup and within 3 weeks, the coup had been put down by troops supporting Fretilin. At that stage Fretilin sought to hand back control to the Portuguese. Fretilin wanted to go to an election as they knew they had overwhelming support from the East Timorese non-elites (aka masses).

Meanwhile the routed UDT elements sought support from the Indonesians who were already carrying out intimidating incursions at the border (including in and near Balibo).

Faced with the refusal of Portugese governors to resume control and imminent Indonesian invasion. On November 28, 1975, Fretilin declared East Timor as the República Democrática de Timor Leste (RDTL) (Democratic Republic of East Timor). RDTL was recognized just by a few countries, mainly former Portuguese colonies, and was short-lived. Ten days later on December 7, 1975 Indonesian troops invaded.
During 1975 clashes between the two main East Timorese contenders (UDT and Fretilin) resulting in more than 2,000 deaths. For such a small country/population so many deaths suggest a "civil war" description. Then came the Indonesians - who did worse.
The Indonesian occupation
Approximately 60,000 people lost their lives in the early years of Indonesian annexation - contributing to a total of about 200,000 deaths for the whole period of their administration.
In an effort to stamp greater control over its dissident new province - whose seizure was condemned by the United Nations - Indonesia invested considerable sums in East Timor leading to more rapid economic growth which averaged 6% per year over the period 1983-1997.
Unlike the Portuguese the Indonesians favoured strong, direct rule, which was never accepted by the East Timorese people who were determined to preserve their culture and national identity.
In 1991, the Indonesian military gave permission for a parliamentary delegation from Portugal. The visit was cancelled at the last minute. Immediately, the Indonesian military went on the attack. A young student, Sebastião Gomes, was killed and many others were arrested. On November 12, 1991 thousands of East Timorese marched towards the Santa Cruz cemetery to mourn for Sebastião Gomes. The Indonesian Army opened fire and killed more than 200 people. The Dili or Santa Cruz Massacre marked a turning point in the brutal occupation of East Timor as the shocking images were beamed around the world.
Individuals and organizations started to put increasing pressure on their governments and on international organizations on behalf of East Timor. The imprisonment of resistance leader Xanana Gusmão in 1992 also put the spotlight on the human rights situation.
Indonesia found itself in an increasingly isolated position which worsened in October 1996 when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to two Timorese leaders, Bishop Ximenes Belo and José Ramos Horta, adding to the growing assertiveness of the independence movement. Then in 1997 and 1998, Suharto's New Order was shaken by a severe economic crisis, leading to widespread demands for political change. Suharto was forced to resign and was replaced by his vice-president, Dr. Habibie.
President Habibie was unwilling to maintain the 'burden' of such an expensive province and in January 1999 offered East Timor "wide-ranging autonomy". Should the Timorese reject this then Indonesia would be prepared to 'let East Timor go'. An agreement on a popular consultation in Timor-Leste was finally reached in May 1999 under the auspices of UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan.
A referendum for freedom
The UN started to prepare for the referendum by setting up the United Nations Assistance Mission for East Timor, UNAMET. On June 3, 1999 the UN raised its flag on the soil of East Timor. In September 1999 the people of East Timor voted overwhelmingly - 78% - in favour of independence from Indonesia. The pro-Indonesian integration militia gangs and the Indonesian armed forces responded with extraordinary brutality, rampaging and plundering across the country. As a result, one-third of the population were forced to resettle in refugee camps in West Timor and neighbouring islands. Another one-third looked for refuge in the mountains of East Timor. Between 1,000 and 2,000 people are reported to have died in the violence.
The UN Security Council authorized a multinational force (INTERFET) under the unified command structure of a member state, Australia, to restore peace and security. The UN also launched a large-scale humanitarian operation including food supplies and other basic services.On October 25 1999, the UN Security Council established the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET) as an integrated, multidimensional peacekeeping operation responsible for the administration of East Timor during its transition to independence.
On August 30, 2001, East Timor had its first free elections - for representatives who were charged with writing a new Constitution. This was agreed on March 24, 2002. On May 20th, East Timor became the world's newest democracy and the first new country of the third millennium. The celebrations took place at Taci Tolou just outside Dili, a former mass grave site, and were attended by dignitaries including United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, former President of the United States Bill Clinton and perhaps most significantly, President Megawati of Indonesia. Click here for pictures of the celebrations.
At midnight on May 19th, the new flag of East Timor was raised, the new national anthem was sung and East Timor's long fight for freedom was finally over.
14 April 2002 marked the first presidential election with former resistance fighter, Xanana Gusmao winning the majority of the votes.
On 20 May 2002, East Timor celebrated its independence following hundreds of years of struggle with UNTAET transferring sovereignty to the first elected Parliament and Government of East Timor.
Mari Alkatiri was Secretary-General of the Fretilin Party, which had received a large majority of the vote in Parliamentary elections in August 2001. Alkatiri was chosen as the first Prime Minister of East Timor.This is just the beginning of this history. I will add more and change parts as time permits. History is always changing like everything we think and do.

February 28, 2012

Pakistani Submarine Developments - Go Nuclear?

French designed Agosta 90B. The pride of Pakistan's submarine fleet.

Pakistan sees submarines as a key asymmetric counter to India’s more numerous naval forces. This follows Pakistan's last major naval exchange with India, during the 1971 war, at which time India effectively blockaded Karachi, Pakistan's only major harbor. Pakistani efforts to curtail India's naval supremacy were largely limited to Pakistan's submarine force, which was able to sink an Indian frigate.

For many years India has had an overall superiority in conventional submarine numbers (currently around 16 active boats mainly Kilo and HDW 209 developments) but India’s forces have diverse responsibilities - to cover several countries and broad sea areas. India's diverse missions might include:
- multi-mode intelligence collection off the coasts of Burma and Pakistan
- protecting India sea lines of communication (SLOC) (particularly oil), and
- preparing to interdict China’s oil routes across the Indian Ocean.

Pakistan has a total of five active diesel electric submarines These include:

- 3 Agosta 90B class submarines (PNS/M Khalid, Saad and Hamza). Hamza (see naval-technology) is equipped with the MESMA AIP. Khalid and Saad will be upgraded with the same AIP system from 2011, and

- 2 Agosta 70s (PNS/M Hasmat and Hurmat).

Pakistan also has 3 or 4 Italian-designed MG110 midget submarines for special forces insertion but perhaps also for one way suicide bombing missions in key harbours like Mumbai.

Pakistani submarine forces probably concentrate almost exclusively on India including, preparing to:

- defend the main port of Karachi;

- breakup an Indian blockade of Karachi and Gwadar

- attack shipping outside Mumbai’s large port area (representing 40% of India’s maritime trade), and

- active signals intelligence collection and possible agent dropping along India’s west coast.

These conventional roles may have remained little changed for decades but what is altering the strategic environment is India’s recent launch of its first locally designed submarine, INS Arihant along with India’s likely deployment of nuclear tipped, submarine launched BrahMos cruise missles and then K-15 ballistic missiles.

Furthermore Pakistan would wish to counter India's the nuclear capable 3M-54/Klub (or Club)/Sizzler cruise missile (further description). Russia has modified at least five of India's ten Kilo submarines to take this missile. While the missile is principally anti-shipping it can also be used for land attack out to 275km.

In response Pakistan is developing nuclear land attack missile options - perhaps in the medium term a
naval variant of the Pakistani developed Babur cruise missile. The Babur has a range of 700 km and is capable of carrying 300kg conventional or nuclear warheads - all probably sufficient for Pakistan at the moment. The problem is that Barbur is probably too long, at 7m (with a booster rocket for submarine launch) to fit in an Agosta's current torpedo tube setup and too long for vertical launch (Agosta's have a 5330mm diameter. Modification to the Agosta torpedo tubes (unless done already) and test firing are necessary - this takes time. Hence Barburs may not be the easy, rapid fix Pakistan's Daily Times hopes for .

Pakistan probably realises that modification of the Exocet and Harpoon cruise missiles already on the Agostas may offer a quicker, but only partial solution. All of the Pakistani SSKs have been equipped with anti shipping cruise missiles which could conceivably carry nuclear warheads. The main problem is lack of range and miniturisation of nuclear warheads. The three Agosta 90B-Khalid class boats Exocets (165kg warhead) and two older Agosta 70-Hasmat’s wired to fire Harpoons (221kg warhead). See comparative chart on ASMs/cruise missiles. The smaller size of the warhead may limit their yield (unless Pakistan has thermonuclear warheads available). In any case their range (Harpoon is the longer range missile of the two - at 280km) is insufficient to hit Delhi from the sea in a second (final revenge) strike scenario and it would probably be a long, dangerous voyage to hit India's east coast targets.

Pakistan is known to have conducted tests on its anti-ship Harpoons to make them more land attack worthy. These tests may have also involved range extension.
In mid-2006 the Pakistan Navy announced its requirement of three new SSK attack submarines to replace the two Agosta-70s. The French naval firm DCN had offered its latest export design - the Marlin SSK - which [is an AIP equipped development of] the Scorpene SSK, but also uses technology from the Barracuda nuclear attack submarine. However, the Pakistan Navy is said to have chosen the German [AIP equipped] HDW Type 214 submarine. During the IDEAS 2008 exhibition, the HDW chief Walter Freitag stated “The commercial contract has been finalised up to 95 per cent.”
Pakistan, perhaps for bargaining reasons, has denied that a purchase of 3 HDW boats is final. To further complicate the purchasing picture, with France due to assist Brazil to build a nuclear Scorpene Pakistan may see possibilities for future French nuclear assistance.
Pakistan would certainly be worried about India's development of nuclear submarines with nuclear missiles yet the cost and lead times for Pakistan itself to develop its own nuclear submarines would be too great. Assistance from France or even China is likely to be too politically charged from a proliferation standpoint. In any case nuclear propulsion may not be an essential requirement for 3 or 4 Pakistani submarines. Adequate medium range nuclear tipped missiles fired from sufficiently large conventional submarines may be what Pakistan wants or needs.

Therefore it will be of great interest what submarine Pakistan wants next, including subsequent diameter alterations, VLS choices or further testing of appropriately sized cruise and ballistic missiles.

February 25, 2012

Israeli Dolphin Sub - Nuclear Armed, Conventionally Propelled

One or two nuclear armed Israeli submarines are probably patrolling in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Iran. Israel's five Dolphin Class submarines pack a large amount of electronic warfare gear and nuclear weapons into a highly developed AIP version of the compact HDW 209 submarine. If Australia desperately needed nuclear weapons at short notice - and differing US priorities precluded US provision - then Israel may be a country to supply. Israel has the technology, little worldwide popularity to lose and much to gain by closer relations with Australia.

Its interesting that under a reparations for the Holocaust agreement Germany provided the original Dolphin free and the next two for a 33% discount (together the first three Dolphins averaged a low US$320 million each). Strategypage October 2, 2009, reports:

"Three years after it signed a deal with Germany, Israel has received two more German built Dolphin class submarines. Israel already had three Dolphins, which they received 8-9 years ago. These have since been upgraded to include larger fuel capacity, converting more torpedo tubes to the larger 650mm size, and installing new electronics. The fuel and torpedo tube mods appear to have something to do with stationing the subs off the coast of Iran. Larger torpedo tubes allow the subs to carry longer range missiles. The larger fuel capacity makes it easier to move Dolphins from the Mediterranean to the Indian ocean.

...Israel equipped it's new Dolphin class submarines with nuclear cruise missiles in 2002. Israel also fitted their 135 kilometer range Harpoon missiles with nuclear warheads...The Israelis have developed a cruise missile, which is has a range of 1,500 kilometers and carries a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead. The objective of deploying nukes on subs is to further enhance deterrence to any nation launching a nuclear strike against Israel. If one of the Dolphins are always at sea, even a first strike against Israel would not prevent a nuclear strike by submarine launched nukes. Israel is reported to be trying to set up a base in the Red Sea, because the most likely nuclear attackers are Iran." Whole Article

Speculation on Israeli cruise missile - NTI reports:

"Others believe that Israel has developed an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 320 kilometers that is believed to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority’s Popeye turbo cruise missile. Still others believe that the missile may be a version of the Gabriel 4LR that is produced by Israel Aircraft Industries. Once encapsulated, it could be launched in 533mm torpedo tubes similar to the Harpoon.

Such speculation was further fueled by an unconfirmed test of a nuclear-capable, submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) in the Indian Ocean in 2000. Some reports claimed targets 1,500 kilometers away were hit. Such a range, however, implies an entirely new type of missile. However, the Israeli Defense Forces denies any such missile tests. In June 2002, former State Department and Pentagon officials confirmed that the U.S. Navy observed Israeli missile tests in the Indian Ocean in 2000, and that the Dolphin-class vessels have been fitted with nuclear-capable cruise missiles of a new design. Israel issued new denials, albeit in an indirect manner. " whole NTI article

February 24, 2012

New Isreali Technology for Syrian Raid

Two seat Israeli F-16I

From DefenseTech, November 2, 2007, comes "Another Look at the Israel v Syria Raid"

"Israel used several new intelligence-gathering and strike technologies in its raid on Syria. New details of the attack involve a train of capabilities extending from satellite observations to precision bombing of the suspect facility on Sept. 6.

The launch of a new satellite this summer allowed the integration of several advanced technologies including electro-optical imaging from space, image-enhancing algorithms, scene-matching guidance for precision weapons and the use of advanced targeting pods carried by the Israeli Air Force's two-man F-16Is (the pods are not available on F-15Is).

In a series of interviews, several specialists detailed the technologies and how they were used. "Reality is more impressive than your imagination in some areas,"says a senior military officer.

Space observations provided early planning details for the raid. The important satellite for the Syrian raid was Ofeq-7 launched on June 11th. It has multi-spectral and high resolution electro-optical sensors and a resolution of less than a half-meter, far better than that provided by earlier Israeli satellites.

The space images were then improved by specialized imagery enhancement algorithms to sharpen pictures for planning precision bombing attacks.

The primary aircraft for the Syrian raid were some of the new, two-man Lockheed Martin F-16Is (Sufa or Storm) that Lockheed Martin began delivering to the Israeli Air Force in Feb. 2004. The backseater is a weapons systems officer who can focus on targeting and electronic warfare while the pilot focuses on flying and evading air defenses. Conformal fuel tanks give the fighters an unrefueled combat radius of over 500 mi. which matches the unrefueled range of F-15Is which would normally escort a flight of strike aircraft.

Sensors on the $45 million F-16I include a APG-68(v)9 radar with high-resolution synthetic aperture radar mapping capability and about 30% more range that other mechanically scanned radars.

But more importantly for this raid, the fighter had the Litening targeting pod. Its EO imagery can be used for seeker cueing. That imagery can also be used for scene-matching with the observations made by the satellite."

Comment and Background
Ofeq-7 satellite
The Ofeq-7 satellite is the designation of a series of Israeli reconnaissance satellites. All Ofeq satellites have been launched on Shavit rockets from Palmachim Air Force Base in Israel, on the Mediterranean coast. The Low Earth Orbit satellites complete one earth orbit every 90 minutes. The satellite launches caused Israel to become the ninth nation to launch satellites. Both the satellites and the launchers were designed and manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).

While exact technical details and capabilities are classified, it is assumed that the Ofeq satellites have ultraviolet and visible imaging sensors, and an effective operational lifespan of 1-3 years. Some early reports stated the reconnaissance capabilities as such that would allow "reading license plates in Baghdad", but that can be ruled out on grounds of physical optics. Other reports more plausibly place the imaging resolution at 0.8 meters for Ofeq 5.

Ofeq's east-to-west orbit at 36 degrees inclination is phased to give optimal daylight coverage of the Middle East. Ofeq makes a half-dozen or so daylight passes per day over Israel and the surrounding countries, whereas U.S. and Russian spysats only get one or two passes per day from their higher inclination orbits. This optimal coverage degrades after several months, nevertheless keeping a very good coverage of the Middle East.

AN/APG-68v(9) radar
The AN/APG-68v(9) radar referred to above has improved resolution, increased range and lighter weight than previous radars. The AN/APG-68v(9)'s SAR (Synthetic aperture radar) capability uses enhanced software algorithms. Resolution in the cross range (azimuth) dimension is achieved by synthesizing a large antenna aperture using the motion of the radar platform as the synthesis basis. In brief, the movement of the radar plenum is what synthesizes the larger radar area.

The key to SAR is the data processing, of the reflected or returned information, which by the usage of software algorithmic design performs the SAR image focusing, so that the radar appears to provide ultra high resolution of the returned SAR image.
The AN/APG-68v(9) was not at all developedd in Isreal but bought by (probably using tied US military aid money) from Northrop Grumman. In theory Northrop Grumman will even be selling Pakistan 54 AN/APG-68v(9) sets by 2010.


February 23, 2012

Japanese Rocket and Missile Expansion Possibilities

Japan ICBM capable M-5 launched into space.
UPI's Martin Sieff reported November 5, 2008 that:
WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- The Japanese government is slowly moving towards a decision to launch its own early warning ballistic missile defense satellite, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Wednesday [Nov 5, 2008].

The Tokyo newspaper said it had received access to a draft plan for ballistic missile defense drawn up by the secretariat of the Japanese government's headquarters for space development strategy. The report calls for an assessment on the value of deploying an early warning satellite that could monitor any potentially hostile missile launch.

In addition, the draft plan recommends carrying out a feasibility study on launching more civilian comsats -- communications satellites.

The plan also suggests Japan should start building smaller short-range and medium-range missiles for its Defense Forces, in addition to the bigger H-2A missiles currently in use.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said this language may be an indirect way of pushing through approval to build the GX missile that has become a matter of some controversy. Old-fashioned bureaucrats who are opposed to Prime Minister.

Taro Aso's drive to develop a military space capability for Japan have opposed the GX project, and they managed to get the Space Activities Commission of the nation's Education Ministry, a stronghold for the old, cautious, pure research, non-military tradition in Japanese official space policymaking, to take a position opposing GX development.
"While many question the need to go ahead with the GX development project, (this plan) is -tantamount to approving it," one official told the newspaper.

However, the draft plan looks set to be smoothly approved and then implemented as national policy within the national budget for Fiscal Year 2009. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that at a meeting of the space development strategy secretariat Tuesday, it sent the draft plan on to be finally agreed upon at a second meeting to be held Nov. 27."


This rocket has no direct military missile value given its weight (445 tons) and with its strap-on booster configuration. However launches of this rocket give Japan ongoing experience in the use of the small and medium sized solid fuel boosters - handy for future development of missiles smaller missiles than the M-5. Wiki suggests "The H-IIA (H2A [or H-2A]) is a family of liquid-fuelled rockets providing an expendable launch system for the purpose of launching satellites into geostationary orbit."

It is manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. Launches occur at the Tanegashima Space Center. "

The H-2A has been launched 14 times since 2001 - only one failure - last launch February 23, 2008. Its maximum payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is 15 tons and to Geo Stationary Orbit 6 tons.
See Comparison of mid-heavy lift launch systems which includes Indian GSLV.

A rocket ideal for conversion to an ICBM is Japan's M-V, M5, M-5 or Mu-5,

At 30.8m high, 2.5m diameter and up to 139 tons it is clearly too big for ICBM duty however those specs are for 3 or 4 stages. Just two stages of a (say) 2m diameter scale down may be sufficient to hit Japan's most immediate enemies North Korea and China.

When one looks at Japan's experience, since 1966 in building the Mu range of booster rockets (with 7 smaller rockets before the M-5) Japan's ability to build manageable IRBMs and ICBMs is obvious.


It may be coincidental or intentional that Japan progressed from "strap-on" boosters (associated with peaceful use) in the earlier Mu series (Wiki description) to an ICBM like configuration for the M-5.
The GX will move further in the direction of a space rocket as it is projected to weigh 210 tons and has a liquid fuel upper stage.

More on Japan's very short term nuclear weapons potential Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium of April 29, 2008.
Shorter Range Missiles
Only old figures jump out about shorter range Japanese missiles. The Japanese don't want to appear offensive, appaer to stress reliance on more powerful US forces and don't wish to be seen as competing with the US' near monopoly in missile production and sales.

MHI produces various anti-ship missiles including Type-88 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) and Type-90 SSM for the Japanese military
Specifications 1988 - Type 88 SSM1990 and Type 90 (SSM-1B), 5.1m long, 660 kg, Turbojet,
Maximum effective range - Type 88 SSM 180 km , - Type 90 (SSM-1B) 150 km
Inertial guidance + active radar homing
Deployment -
Type 88 SSM = 320 (?), Type 90 (SSM-1B) = About 40 as of 1994.

MHI also licence builds the US Patriot missile (see MHI site).

Japan has had the experience and capacity for decades to produce advanced ICBMs and shorter range missiles. If the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper is accurate Japan may announce further missile plans by late Novermber 2008.

Indian-Japanese Space Cooperation
This Asia Times Online article of Nov 12, 2008 brings together many likely aspects of both India's and Japan's space programs. It begins:
"India and Japan's agreement in October [2008] to expand cooperation between the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), in the field of disaster management, has the raised the ire of a China fearful that the US is masterminding a powerful space alliance between its allies in the region" and further down:

""This could be seen by some as a sensitive undertaking with obvious dual use possibilities which Japan will attempt to handle with great care. And that degree of sensitivity clearly permeates anything that ISRO and JAXA have been given the green light to develop in this instance, even though JAXA has no national security mission," said Gatling"